Changing Demography and Your Future

As a demographer, researcher and author I have always been puzzled by March Madness. I have no issue with college basketball or the frenzy of the fans, but what I don't understand is the demography of the players. Almost without exception the players on any given team in the Sweet Sixteen are predominately African American, young men of color. In the United States, African Americans make up about fourteen percent of the total population. It would reasonably follow then that if I were to apply statistical diversity to the Sweet Sixteen Tournament I should see no more than one or two African American players at any given time on the floor. However the inverse is often the rule with Caucasian players being a distinct minority.

My question is: Why do we have this statistical contradiction in the Sweet Sixteen demography? If you want to become a social leper ask this question in a public setting. I have silenced whole rooms of chattering sports fans when I have asked the question. Apparently this is the elephant in the room no one talks about. My concern is that the answer to this question is one we may not want to hear. I fear this is the real March Madness.

Dear President Obama,

It is absolutely remarkable to us that the Nation and world are missing the obvious ramifications of shifting demography. Instead we see our Nation’s leaders baffled by the symptoms of demographic issues when they could be facing the real causes and effecting real solutions.

The world’s financial crisis developed as a result of the United States housing crisis. The US housing crisis was inevitable because the tiny Generation X, born 1965 to 1984, did not have the critical mass to buy the huge Baby Boomer generation’s homes. The market, aided by federal legislation, made up the difference by selling homes to people who could not afford them. The tragedy is the fact that this was all very predictable and avoidable.

If Detroit understood shifting demography it would not need a bail out. They are trying to sell cars to a generation and market that does not have the critical mass to buy them and they are missing a huge new market because they are not paying attention.

Assisted living facilities throughout the US are going bankrupt in record numbers because they do not understand that the United States is about to experience a twenty year period when the number of elderly people will be the lowest of the last one hundred years. Healthcare is failing because the healthy young people paying into the system, Generation X, are too small to compensate for the huge number of ailing older people, the Baby Boomers.

The list goes on and on and virtually everyone is missing the point. Our problems can be solved if we simply examine demographic facts and make informed decisions.

President Obama, please feel free to call us and we will walk you through the numbers. We can even show you how to save Social Security!

May God Bless the United States of America.

Sincerely,

Ken Gronbach  

I have started a new business called Age Curve Consulting, LLC with a team of very talented researchers and analysts. Our products are public speaking, seminars, consulting and research, reports . All relate to the shifting demographic landscape of the United States and the world. Our initial research report is free and is available to download at www.Beaconassetmanagers.com . Take advantage of this offer and send the link to anyone you think may have an interest and could benefit. We will be expanding the Age Curve Research site and modifying this blog so both sites will compliment each other.

These are exciting and challenging times. I know a lot of you are beginning to feel the pain of this historic correction to the world economy. However, stay with us. The world is not ending. It is changing. More than ever before you need good information to make informed decisions. The simple facts regarding shifting demography are at the root cause of this change. If you want to stay ahead of the curve and take advantage of enormous opportunities, please stay tuned. We can tell you about every bend in the road ahead.

Kenneth W. Gronbach

This is a story I wrote for an online magazine catering to the insurance industry.

Selling Life and Health Insurance to the Largest Generation in United States History.

“The Times They are a Changin” was a signature song for Bob Dylan in the 1960s. It was true then as The Baby Boomers marched forward in time and it is even truer now as Generation Y ages and begins to find it's place in the United States culture and economy. Generation Y is going to change everything and has already played a significant part in electing the Nation’s first African American president. Generation Y’s influence on the United States and the world will be momentous. Consider this very important distinction. Generation Y is the largest generation ever born in the United States and the United States is the only world power with above replacement level fertility. Simply stated that means the U.S. continues to have kids at levels that bode well for our country’s future workforce and economic security. This is in marked contrast to the well below replacement fertility evidenced in Russia, Japan, China and all of the European Union. This clear fact will irrevocably alter world power and economic dominance for decades to come.

Let’s have a close look at this unique, powerful and influential generation. As consumers they will remain voracious and this could be the engine that will drive their need to achieve. Generation Y (79.5 million kids now aged five to 24)will experience very high double digit unemployment as they populate the entry level labor market right behind the diminutive Generation X (now 25 to 44). Competition will be fierce for entry level jobs very similar to what the Boomers experienced in the seventies as they followed the tiny Silent Generation into the workplace. The good news is, as with the Boomers in the seventies, necessity will be the mother of invention and millions of GenerationY young peoplewill open their own businesses with an entrepreneurial spirit not seen in decades. Millions of the huge Boomer Generation went into business for themselves in the sixties and seventies when they could not find work. The timing was perfect because the Boomer market in general was underserved by the commercial infrastructure established to meet the needs of the tiny Silent Generation consumer that occupied the twenty years just ahead of the Boomers. Now Generation Y will open businesses out of necessity and to satisfy the growing demand of their own generation. We are seeing this trend already in the technical and building trades. In a paradigm shift the best and brightest young men and women filled the Nation’s secondary technical (trade) schools to meet the demand created by retiring Boomer skilled labor. These very young entrepreneurs will likely start their families early as well and will need health and life insurance. This is a brand new very exciting market.

Let’s consider the design of this enormous Y Generation. They are a kinder, gentler generation that has been taught not to name call, bully or be mean. They do not see color or race as a defining characteristic so bigotry and racial prejudice is rare. They have been taught to be competitive but not combative, to disagree but not disrespect, to achieve but not condescend and that the end does not justify the means. They are green to a fault and will favor patronizing a business with a real green or humanitarian story over one with a better product or lower price. It is important to note that any company that is perceived by Generation Y to be disingenuous about “giving back” and tries to fake a green stand will be labeled a “green washer” and could face a crippling boycott. You can not lie to Generation Y. They speak cyber as a first language and live in a world of instant information as evidenced by their mastery of social networking like YouTube, Face Book and My Space. They have reinvented communication with their ability to text on their phones without looking at the keyboard. Marketers are vexed by Generation Y’s rejection of traditional media like radio, television and newspaper. This makes them difficult to reach and brand with advertising messages. The messages themselves are also in jeopardy and have not found favor with Generation Y because much of the advertising copy has the attendant hyperbole and exaggeration often associated with promoting products and services. Marketers are quickly finding out that the best strategy is veracity and pragmatism. The truth, what a concept! The caliber of products and services should definitely improve on Generation Y’s watch. A good product or service with a fair price and an honest green story will find an endorsement of their offering coursing through Generation Y at light speed. It’s called viral marketing and it is a whole new ball game.

As we drill down to street level selling to Generation Y we need to be aware of some basic considerations, some dos and don’ts. Don’t expect to hold their attention with a boilerplate PowerPoint presentation. These young people are capable of multi-tasking four and five things at a time. It is not uncommon for them to be listening to an IPod while they are on Facebook, talking to a friend on Skype, texting on their phone and watching television. In their world a minute is a long time and they will probably find your technology primitive and a turn off. Remember you are not selling insurance you are selling financial instruments that need to be relevant and even tailored to this generation or they will look at you like you have two heads. Generation Y will understand the concept of responsibility and long term planning. It goes along with being green. This generation, because of a propensity to obesity, will definitely have health issues early on and need quality coverage. Life insurance will be a more difficult sell. How ever Generation Y will probably find variants of whole life attractive especially when the elements of financial planning are made clear. Remember these kids have been taught from a young age to be accountable so they will want to provide for their families. Don’t over sell. Remember to make your presentations succinct, to the point, clear and true. The sales pitch is history and has been replaced by relevant communication or “The Truth Well Told.”

Just a quick word about prospecting to Generation Y, it is going to be tough. Telemarketers are going to have a difficult time finding them because they don’t use conventional telephones. As we mentioned earlier they don’t respond to radio, television or newspapers. Has anyone found the silver bullet for reaching them online? No. So what is the answer? Relationships and referrals. So work hard, put in long hours and do the right thing and this generation will beat a path to your door.

Are Newspapers History?

 Kenneth W. Gronbach, a leading trend caster, author and internationally respected demographer is forecasting the imminent demise of all but a few United States newspapers. Gronbach is the author of “The Age Curve, How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm.” The forecast comes on the heels of research released December 2008 by Pew Research Center for the People and the Press: Internet Overtakes Newspapers as News Outlet. For the first time since the Pew Research Center has been keeping track of where people get their national and international news their research shows that the internet has outpaced newspapers. 40% of the 1,489 respondents in the survey cited the internet as their primary news source. 35% cited newspapers and 70% said TV. 60% of the respondents under 30 years old identified the internet as the medium where they got most of their news. According to the Audit Bureau of Circulations newspaper circulation has fallen about 2 percent annually for years but began to drop faster in the 2007 reports, and faster still in the reports issued spring 2008, which showed overall declines of 3.6 percent on weekdays and 4.6 percent on Sundays.

“It’s really very simple.” Gronbach stated, “Newspaper readers are dying and no new ones are being born. It’s the end of an era, but it is not the end of the world. Things change and change always equals opportunity. The newspaper business model no longer works. We need to ask, what’s next?” Research does clearly show that for the first time ever the internet has passed newspapers by a significant margin as the choice for news. Gronbach further states “The Baby Boomer Generation, born 1945 to 1964, is the last generation to read newspapers. Generation X, born 1965 to 1984, and Generation Y, Born 1985 to 2004, don’t read newspapers.” Marketers are apparently very aware of this attrition and have pulled display advertising dollars and focused their attention on other media. On line classified advertising sites like Craig’s List have all but wiped out newspapers share of this once very profitable market. Many newspapers are forced to cut corners by using wire stories and cutting reporting staff, further reducing the value and readership of their product. The Nation’s lack luster economy, specifically retail sales have further exacerbated newspaper’s problems and shrunk revenues. Many newspapers have focused on developing a web presence but the bottom line is an online newspaper is difficult to monetize.

Is it over? Gronbach says it is. “There is no bailout money being set aside by the feds to save newspapers. The next five years will be very telling. Many states will have no major newspaper. A few will survive like The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post and USA Today. The rest will be history.” Gronbach says.

For immediate release.

Contact:

Kenneth W. Gronbach

866- 977-NEXT

www.agecurveresearch.com

http://www.amazon.com/Age-Curve-Profit-Demographic-Storm/dp/0814401813