Changing Demography and Your Future

 I had an experience in a supermarket checkout line recently that sent a chill up my spine. It wasn’t the cost of food although that was staggering enough. It was a comment by the young woman who was checking me through the line at light speed. I estimated that she was in her late teens, born in the mid nineties, a perfect Generation Y example. She looked at my wrist watch and said “you don’t see many of those anymore.” I thought this was a really cool comment because it is rare that anyone recognizes the fact that I wear an antique Rolex. I thought to myself that this young woman was surprisingly savvy. I told her that it was a 1974 Stainless Rolex Precision that actually needed to be wound. Her response was a blank stare, not what I expected. I knew there was a communication disconnect. Then she said:        “Most people don’t wear watches anymore.” It was my turn for the blank stare and then the chill. Watches are out dated. I am old.

I have two Generation Y daughters, one sixteen and one nineteen. When I got home with the food I relayed my experience in the checkout line. Their expressions essentially said, “Where have you been?” My oldest said, “Haven’t you noticed that we don’t wear watches?”  I guess I hadn’t. My youngest then dropped the real bomb, “Dad, you wear an analog watch. I have friends that cannot tell time that way.” Was she kidding? No, she was not kidding. Is this what Bob Dylan meant by the lyrics “The Times They are a Changin…” I need to lie down, maybe get counseling.

My first fear was that what I was experiencing was early onset Alzheimer’s, a truly chilling fear. Clearly it was not. The times were changing, profoundly changing. Who would have thought that people, younger generations, would begin to view time differently? Seriously, time. What else do they view differently? Nothing is sacred or off limits. What else have we taken for granted? Food? Marriage? Families? Cars? Education? Friendship? Clothing? Entertainment? Jobs? Vacations? Life from the new perspective had to be reviewed and taken into account or you would be left behind. I refuse to be left behind.

My daughters are willing to help me understand Generation Y; after all it is in their best interests. So let’s examine a small cross section of how thinking is changing and what’s in store for us. For the record Generation Y was born 1985 to 2004. There are about eighty-two million of them, three million more than the Baby Boomers. They are voracious consumers who have not come close to hitting their consumption stride. That comes later when they earn their own money. We are the only contemporary Western civilization and the only industrialized nation that has a substantial Generation Y. They will be the biggest and best labor force our Nation has ever enjoyed. As they seek entry level jobs they face unemployment as high as fifty percent. The paradigm has shifted from an employees’ market of the last twenty years to and employers’ market. The best and brightest will get jobs and the rest will open their own businesses out of necessity just like the Boomers did in the seventies.

For the last thirty years the European Union, Eastern Europe and all of Asia have reduced their fertility to below replacement level decimating their future labor forces and guaranteeing that manufacturing will once again flourish in the United States. (Babies become adults. What were they thinking?) The future is very bright for the United States and Generation Y is why.

Generation Y does not see color, race, ethnic origin or religion as a barrier to relationships. It is not because they are tolerant, it’s because it never enters their minds. The concept of racial bigotry is an oddity and a curiosity to them. They will fall in love and marry without prejudice. The average skin tone in the United States thirty years from now will be decidedly darker. Red heads will be extremely rare and very valuable.

Generation Y is turned off by their parent’s 6,000 square foot starter castes. My daughters tell me that if I wanted to see the future Generation Y living quarters just go to IKEA. Research shows that Generation Y will favor 1,500 square foot homes that are self sustaining with cement walls, plastic window casings, tile roofs and geo-thermal heating and cooling. My daughters will of course condescend to stay in our starter caste until they can afford their smaller greener homes. Some things never change.

My daughters have never fully understood where the meat in a McDonald’s Big Mac comes from or have even come to grips with the fact that it is meat… from an animal… that had to die. This is the original “Don’t ask, don’t tell.”

Are super markets in for a wake up call? Big time. Say goodbye to meat counters. Say hello to prepared foods. My wife cooks, very well. We sit at a table and eat breakfast, lunch and dinner as a family. My daughters remind us that we are an anomaly, an anachronism. “We’re the only family that does this, you know.” What does the word dinner mean to Generation Y? I have been in homes where Mom announces dinner and the family comes from all over the house to get a plate of food and then return to where they came from. This is dinner?

 Will Generation Y change our labor force? I think yes. I was working on a story on my antique laptop when suddenly my document went into hieroglyphic mode. It became a jumble of foreign looking symbols. When I checked all my other documents the same was true for them. Sweat began to pour off my face because I have saved nothing. My life was over. Just then my oldest daughter walked behind my chair texting on her phone and listening to her iPod. She saw my problem reached over my shoulder and with a couple of key strokes solved the issue totally. She then sat down at her desktop and pulled up Facebook and then someone in Skype. Then she turned on the TV. I just stared at her and said, “Work for me.” Boomers are immigrants in the cyber world and speak with a thick accent. Generation X is bi-lingual. Generation Y speaks cyber naturally as a first language. They will bring a dimension of efficiency to the labor force that we have never seen before, ever.

The movie "Fast and Furious 2009" broke box office records. No surprise there. I forecast this in 2003 in my book "Common Census" when the leading edge of Generation Y was just starting to drive. I covered the subject in detail in my 2008 book "Age Curve". I stated that Detroit had missed an obvious cue spelled out in the overwhelming popularity of "Fast and Furious 2001".  The huge new market for cars, Generation Y, is not going to buy the latest mutation of the SUV. What are they going to buy? Small light weight rocket fast Asian cars. Watch both movies. The continuity is on the money. I know because I spent the better part of the Summer of 2007 filming Generation Y hot-rodders. Japanese automobile sales are going to continue to spike. If Detroit can get their act together and build what Generation Y wants they could have powered out of this crisis without a crippling bailout.

There is more, a lot more. Really more than I can cover here. Generation Y is about to overwhelm the US highways driving the fastest cars ever made. The AAA tells us that the chance of dying in an accident in a small car are twice that of an SUV.  In addition, as the Baby Boomer Harley riders begin to fade into oblivion, there will be a sea of male Generation Y Sport Bike enthusiasts trying to kill themselves on machines capable of 200 mph (not a typo). In short we have a huge young high accident risk population/generation headed right at us and no is talking about it. Public Safety/police need to start preparing now because believe me they are not going to catch these kids with their anachronistic Ford Crown Victorias or existing technology. Hospitals, trauma centers and emergency workers are going to get caught flat footed by a dramatic increase in traffic accident victims. People needing organ transplants will see a surge in availability. Car insurance rates that have been stable for the last twenty years because of the small number of young drivers (Generation X) could double and triple. The United States healthcare crisis is about to be sucker punched. Auto body shops franchises like Maaco and parts stores like Pep Boys should see a surge in business.

I speak all over the United States to a broad spectrum of audiences about shifting demography, everyone from associations of funeral directors to manufacturers to financial institutions. I warn them about the perils of misunderstanding Generation Y. I tell banks to get Generation Y representation on their boards of directors or they risk having their industry become a buggy whip. Generation Y banks on their iPhones. Generation Y will make the arrangements when their Boomer parents die. What will they do? Don’t count on anything traditional.

The mandate is clear. We need to embrace Generation Y and really understand how they think now because clearly, right on their heels, is Generation Z, born 2005 to 2024 and they are a whole new ball game.

Remember, it’s a fact. We age. You can’t speed it up and you can’t slow it down. But that doesn’t mean you let life pass you by.