Changing Demography and Your Future

The huge Generation Y, born 1985 to 2004, is now making its mark in college enrollment as the share of 18- to 24-year-olds attending college in the United States hit an all-time high in October 2008, driven by a surge in enrollments at community colleges, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of newly released data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that Generation Y would make its presence know in this arena because one of the early peaks in the Generation Y birth data came in 1990 with well over four million live births. These kids are now nineteen years old and ripe for college. Age Curve Consulting has bee watching the consumption of this “bigger than the Baby Boomer “generation very closely and Generation Y has not disappointed us. According to Pew Research Center almost 11.5 million students or about 40% of all Generation Y young adults ages 18 to 24 are enrolled in college as of October 2008 (Newest data available). Both the total number and the percentage are the highest ever. The spike in junior college would follow as the four year schools have their pick of the best and brightest and the two year schools take the overflow. In 2007 there were 3.1 million young adults in community colleges but by 2008 that number had swelled by 300,000 students or 11.8% of all the 18 to 24 year olds. Enrollment in the four year schools remained flat during this same period.

So what is the employment picture for these 18- to 24- years- olds? It’s bleak. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics only 46.1% of them were employed as of September 2009, the lowest number ever since this data has been gathered starting in 1946.

The trend to two year community colleges has its financial advantages. Compared to four year public colleges the cost is on average a third less and compared to four year private schools the cost is about two thirds less (College Board, 2009). Is the trend to the cheaper college a product, at least in part, of the recession? Yes, without a doubt.

Is there a silver lining to this grey cloud of high unemployment and difficult economy for the large beleaguered Generation Y? Yes, for one they are graduating high school and attending college in record numbers. Education is a good thing. So if they can’t find work let them stay in school. The economy will rebound especially as China begins to falter because of its ill-fated one child only policy and manufacturing begins to find its way back to the States as China runs out of labor. The United States will have the biggest, best and most educated labor force in its history, another good thing. There’s more. Back in the early 1980’s when the 1957 peak of the Baby Boomers found the employment and economic climate to be very unfriendly what did they do? They opened their own businesses by the millions, so they could eat. Necessity is the mother of invention. We can’t wait to see what Generation Y will invent as they face the same challenges.