Changing Demography and Your Future

A Presidential Campaign Without Issues

All those in favor of withdrawing from Iraq signify by running for president and raising money. By the way what does raising money have to do with leadership? Why are the candidates with the biggest bankrolls called the front runners? It gets worse. The new ploy with the front runners is humor, something akin to standup. I think it is appropriate. It would be a lot funnier if these people weren’t all vying to be the leader of the United States, the most powerful nation in the world. What are the real issues? Where do the candidates stand on these issues? Who has the best ideas for solving problems? Who can tell the difference between the symptom of a problem and the source of a problem? Who can lead the free world?

I have proposed some issues from a demographic standpoint. These issues are a result of a collision between shifting demography and predictable societal patterns. These are not circumstances that might be issues. These are circumstances that will be issues whether they are addressed politically or not.

What are the candidates’ positions on:

1. An enormous increase in crime , a crime wave, owing to the repopulating of a segment of unemployed high risk young men in the crime committing age of fifteen to thirty. We are seeing increasing evidence of this now. This is not an anomaly. This is a trend. Generation Y, now twenty-two years old and under, will be the largest generation in the history of the United States. The peak of this generation is currently seventeen years old. It will fill the prime crime committing age of fifteen to thirty with more idle high risk young men than this nation has ever seen. It will become very difficult to live safely in the Nation’s cities.

2. A crash in the housing market precipitated by the huge Boomer Generation trying to unload their starter castles to an eleven percent smaller Generation X. Generation X, now twenty-two to forty-two, simply does not have the critical mass to buy up the homes being exited by the retiring Boomers. Most of what Boomers have in terms of net worth is in their depreciating homes.

3. A tax shortfall of epic proportions brought about by the fact that Boomers are exiting their peak tax paying years at the rate of one every eight seconds. Maintaining a federal budget of three trillion dollars will not be difficult, it will be impossible. You can not run a country without taxes. Who is going to pay them?

4. A failed healthcare system that is dead but hasn’t fallen over yet. The Boomers are requiring more and more care as they age while there simply aren’t enough healthy Generation Xers to pay into the system and not use it. Our health care system is built on the principle of shared risk (insurance). When the insurance companies pay out more than they collect in premiums they are forced to raise their rates and cut costs. Insurance companies are businesses that must make a profit to survive. The shifting demography of the United States has created an insurance market that is intolerant to the shared risk principal. It cannot survive.

5. Cornerstones of our economy are slipping. Wal-Mart, Ford, Chrysler and General Motors with combined sales of almost a trillion dollars are losing ground. They represent over ten percent of consumer spending. The tragedy here is the fact that these companies have lost touch with a changing market place. All four are still chasing the Boomer when their focus needs to be on Generation Y.

6. An unbalanced labor force, a misguided immigration policy and displaced immigrants. We will have shortages of mid-level managers and an over abundance of entry level labor. This will play havoc with the economy. Our labor force is seriously out of sync with our demand for labor. We have enough workers but we don’t have enough of the ones we need and we have an over abundance of the ones we don’t need. An intelligent immigration policy could correct this problem and a myriad of others in less than five years.

7. The inevitable collapse of Social Security just as Boomers will need it most. This will precipitate elderly homelessness. The Ponzi scheme is over. There are not enough Generation Xers to pay into the system for the sea of Boomers to collect. This is one of the problems that an intelligent immigration policy could correct. Right now in Europe, specifically East Germany there are enough trained skilled workers to fill the technical labor void that exists in Generation X. They would come here in a nano second under a special limited visa and begin paying into Social Security and funding our health care system.

8. The promotion of entrepreneurial small business growth so Generation Y can be employed. Most small business owners today in the United States are Boomers. Why? In large part because as Boomers entered the work force there were more of them than there were jobs. Necessity is the mother of invention. Generation Y needs to get this message and they need to get it now. They could buy out the retiring Boomer’s businesses.

9. The funding of technical education and the promotion of manufacturing skills. The United States can once again be self-reliant manufacturing nation. Why? Because demographically China has shot it self in the foot with its one child policy and Generation Y is the biggest emerging labor force this Nation has ever had.

10. A looming crisis in public education. Boomer teachers are retiring in mass. We need to recreate the conditions that entice them to stay or we will soon have children (Generation Y) teaching children.

I am waiting for a champion to take on the real issues. The strength of our Nation is found in its ability to change. I want to hear about change and who will make it happen.